6/11 Free Sample Video from 6/10/13
5/25 Pullback or Correction
Last week we witnessed a 3 % pullback from 1687 to 1636. That marks the fourth 3 % pullback that we've had since the November low. There are many indicators that are now turning bearish. I think there is a good shot that prices rally back up to the 1667 to 1675 area to set up a lower high. But prices need to clear 1655 in order for that to happen. Should prices set up a lower high it would open the door to a 5 % pullback or a correction. If prices pullback to the rising trendline and/or the 50-day MA, that would be a 5 % pullback, breaking the previous trend of buyers coming in after a 3% dip. Now if the trendline is taken out, that would open the door to a correction that could produce a decline of 7 to 12 %.
The second charts down showcases two possible Elliott Wave counts. The first one features a 5% pullback, in the form of an abc pullback that holds above the rising trendline. The second scenario presents a much deeper correction, with a 5-wave push lower. Possibly down to the 1485. A break in the trendline would suggest that a change in trend, so this wave would be the first minor wave of a larger wave 1. See the two charts below.
5/23 Looking for a Backtest on the Nasdaq 100
(Intraday Update 8:48 a.m. PT)
I'm looking for a backtest of the broken trendline on the hourly chart below. That could take NDX back up to the 3030 to 3040 area for a test. If prices are too weak to backtest, then NDX could try rally back to the 200-period moving average on the 5-minute chart and stall near the 3020 to 3025 area. Any rally is a shorting opportunity. See both charts below.
The 1st chart below shorts the 5 min chart of nasdaq 100 futures. Prices cleared the 200 period MA and we currently have bullish alignment of the moving average trio. If the 50 period clears the 200 MA then prices could move back above 3000 to test some of the resistance levels memtioned above.
5/22 A Lower High Setting Up on the Nasdaq 100
The 1-minute chart on Nasdaq 100 Futres (NQ) shows two turning points during the session at the highs. The second high is lower and prices could now try and take out the trough low that separates the two peaks. I got stopped out the short I took yesterday and am now trying a short at higher levels. I'm playing the shooting star pattern that appeared in the first peak. Both peaks offered a shorting opportunity for the Nasdaq 100. We could see some shooting star patterns on the daily charts by the end of the day if the lower high holds.
5/22 Crude-Oil Futures Slip on Weekly Inventory Data
Crude-oil futures slipped Wednesday after government data showed rising gasoline stockpiles and a smaller-than-anticipated decline in oil stocks.
5/21 Stock Market Update
5/20 Nasdaq 100's BPI Trendline Busted
5/20 Anthony Grisanti (Griz) Looking for Crude to Spike
Crude oil rallied back up to resistance at the 97 level once again. Anthony Grisanti thinks we could see an upside resolution in energy due to Memorial Day kicking off the summer season, and geo-political concerns. However, if resistance holds then prices could move back to the lower end of the large triangle that is setting up on crude. So if you go short use tight stops, there is always the risk of an upside breakout of crude oils triangle.
5/19 The Equity Put/Call Ratio Suggests Complacency
Two very important charts
The put/call ratio has moved to extremes once again. Hovering near levels where we saw the last correction back in September of 2012. That would hint that the next reversal will be corrective in nature rather than just a pullback. The pullbacks since the November low have been holding up near the 50-day MA. Should a correction begin, the S&P 500 will need to move below it's 50-day MA and break the rising trendline.
The second chart below shows the weekly chart of the S&P 500 closing above it's upper Bollinger Band and tagging the upper boundary of the mature rising price channel that has been in place since the 2009 bottom.
5/17 Crude Oil Testing Trendline
More commentary and charts below.
Another shorting opportunity for crude oil came as it tagged the trendline. You can see the reversal on the 1 minute chart. First the reversal, then a bounce off the 200 MA to set up a lower high, the prices fall below the 200 MA and a bearish alignment of the 10-, 20-, and 50-period MAs. Now we need to see the moving average trio drop below the 200 MA.
Another short opportunity, but there is always risk of a breakout. Right now prices are reversing off of the declining trendline on a very large triangle. See the chart below.
I'm watching the 5-min chart of crude futures (CL) to see if prices rallly back up to set up a lower high. Just before the market opened crude futures tagged the declining trendline on the daily chart.
2/14 Gloomy Q4 GDP for the Eurozone
Eurozone GDP Contracting for 3 Consecutive Quarters
Eurozone GDP figures send markets lower
European markets have closed and the poor GDP figures have taken their toll.
• The FTSE 100 has finished 31.75 points lower at 6327.36, a 0.5% fall
• Germany's Dax is down 1.05%
• France's Cac has closed 0.78% lower
• Italy's FTSE MIB is off 1%
• Spain's Ibex is down 0.71%
• However in Athens the market has edged up 0.48%
GDP figures show the eurozone lurched deeper into recession in the fourth quarter, when even the robust German economy contracted.
The eurozone economy has now been contracting for three consecutive quarters, following zero growth in the first quarter of last year. That makes it the first full year in which no quarter produced growth, extending back to 1995.
The fourth quarter saw the rate of decline speed up dramatically with output falling by 0.6%, compared with a 0.1% drop in the third quarter.
The worst performer was Portugal, with output dropping by a staggering 1.8%.
Netherlands Q4 GDP -0.2%; France -0.3%; Germany -0.6%; Hungary -0.9%; Italy -0.9%; Portugal -1.8%.